Are Stocks Finally Ready To Break?

S&P 500 ESTIMATED CTA FLOWS -9.23.24

• TRIGGER LEVEL - 5500 - ABOUT $80 BILLION TO SELL

• TRIGGER LEVEL- 5225 - ABOUT $200 BILLION TO SELL

LIQUIDITY 9.23.24

• EST. RESERVE BALANCES - $3.18 TRILLION - 9.24.24 

• RESERVE BALANCES EXPECTED 2W TREND - FLAT to HIGHER

• SPX FUTURES TOP OF BOOK - LOW

• SPY ETF SPREADS - WIDE

SPX CASH OPTION GAMMA LEVELS -9.24.24

• Big Gamma - 5750

• Call Wall - 5750 -Resistance

• Put Wall - 5600 - Support

• Zero Gamma - 5465 - Volatility is higher when spot price is below

S&P 500 TIMING CYCLES -9.23.24

• Long-Term Weekly Cycle- Peaking

• Short-Term Daily Cycle - Heading Lower

S&P 500 TECHNICALS -9.24.24

• 1-5 Days -  5620

• Support - 5620

• Resistance - 5725

S&P 500 FUNDAMENTALS -9.23.24

• PE - 23.5x 2024 EPS EST. - HIGH vs. Average of 16-17

• 2024 EPS EST. - $240.68

• EPS EST. - TRENDING LOWER

MY Positioning: Defensive -

• 65 to 70% of my portfolio is long, high-quality, long-term growth-oriented stocks, and I have about 30 to 35% in cash.--6.6.24

Short-term Outlook -

• Right now, I think resistance is around 5725, with support at 5,600; a break of support opens a path back to 5,400. -9.23.24

6 - 9 Month Outlook -

• Widening credit spreads, higher rates, and a stronger dollar will cause the S&P 500 to sink to 4,400.

This is my opinion and not a recommendation to buy, sell, or be long or short any securities or derivatives. Please proceed at your own risk and consider your risk tolerances.